Panic has gripped world markets. The situation is completely out of control and there is nothing that governments can do or say to stop him. As in 1929, each time it was thought that the worst was yet to come, further falls occurred immediately. Nobody knows how far they can get the stock prices. The world economy is now in the open sea. "We're way beyond fundamentals," said Chris Orndorff, head of strategy at Payden & Rygel values, of Los Angeles. "This is just pure panic, that's all."
Nobody has the slightest idea of where everything goes and how it will end. But all the struggles are flashing danger sign. Today in the London market all stocks have fallen sharply, even shares of the drug, which could be considered safe. Yesterday in the U.S. the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003. There were similar falls across Europe, Paris fell 8.4 percent and Germany 9.1 percent. The Vienna Stock Exchange suspended operations until Friday afternoon. The Russian bourgeoisie presumptuous imagined that would get rid of the global crisis has had a rude surprise with the sudden drop in oil prices. In Moscow stock remains suspended due to excess volatility.
The U.S. stock market is on track for its worst year since 1937. "I've never seen a panic like this," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor. "I've seen the markets drop, but not an overall panic." The Washington Post we read today: "The fear and apprehension seized Wall Street on Thursday, when the market fell back and investors became convinced that the nation was on the verge of a deep and prolonged recession." The huge package of 700,000 million dollars which sought to recover back the interbank lending clearly has failed in its objective. The interest rate at three months used by banks to lend to each dollar (known as Libor) has risen to 4.8 percent.
When it was the climate of terror were heavy falls in all markets in Asia. In Tokyo stock prices fell more than 10 percent and suspended the operations of certain shares and options. The stock price reached its lowest level since June 2003. The Bank of Japan reacted by injecting a total of 4.5 trillion yen (U.S. $ 66,600 million) in money markets. Shares in Australia recorded its worst week since the 1987 stock market crash. Index South Korea's Kospi was at its lowest since June 23, 2006, while the collapse of futures triggered the suspension of operations.
was the eighth straight trading day that the Japanese central bank injected money into the markets to try to secure a vital cash flow for the financial system. But had no effect. Shares in Tokyo in a week fell 24 percent, double the weekly drop was during the 1987 stock market crash. "Selling is unstoppable in New York and Tokyo," said Yutaka Miura, senior strategist at Shinko Securities in Tokyo. "Investors are in fear."
see the same story. The benchmark for Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index, reached its lowest point in eight years while Philippine share prices fell more than 8.3 percent. In Indonesia, were suspended plans to reopen the bag to prevent what the president of the market called "deep panic." Operations were halted for two days earlier this week.
In India, the Mumbai market plunged 6.5 percent at the very beginning the operations. Shortly thereafter, the Indian central bank injected another U.S. $ 12,800 million in money markets. Australian shares closed with a down 8.3 percent. We must remember that not long ago it was assumed that Asia was the magic factor that would prevent a global recession. And innocent souls were willing to believe it.
Britain in crisis
Tony McNulty, Minister in the government of Gordon Brown, yesterday became the prime minister acknowledging that Britain is heading into recession. He said the huge success of the charity British banks "will be the precursor [sic] of what it will be long and deep recession." He added: "Slowly we are approaching a stage where the slowdown could become technically in a recession and then we'll talk about the nature and depth of the recession. "
These comments contrast with previous assertions (heard not long ago) that the gift of the British government to resolve banking crisis credit. In the overnight, changed his bold assertion. Instead of "solving the credit crisis," he says his purpose is "to prevent the collapse of the banking system."
Overall, Brown and Darling have about 500,000 million pounds available to bankers. Most in loans and other guarantees, as they will be returned (although not say exactly when.) Is the amount of 50,000 million pounds they expect will be returned but have no idea how or when. The hope, of course, is wonderful. Every player expects the next move will make you rich. And hope is particularly low base.
What is truly amazing is how these gentlemen talk of staggering sums of money as if it were pocket change. 50,000 million pounds is a huge amount. Is five times what is expected to cost the 2012 Olympics and a third of all money collected through taxes last year in Britain. It is also 60 percent más de lo que el gobierno ha pedido prestado el último año impositivo. Esta cantidad es mucho mayor de lo que se recauda por impuestos y de lo que se pedirá prestado. Supone aumentar enormemente el nivel de endeudamiento de la economía británica. Significará una carga pesada sobre el contribuyente e impondrá severas restricciones al gasto público en el futuro previsible.
Gordon Brown pretende que se trata de una inversión que finalmente se pagará por sí misma. El argumento es que ya se ha hecho en Escandinavia. Pero aunque es verdad que Noruega consiguió recuperar el dinero, en cambio Suecia y Finlandia sufrieron pérdidas. Como cualquier inversión se trata de un juego y su éxito or failure depends entirely on whether the banks recover. But no sign of it. On the other hand, this measure has not had the effect of restoring confidence in financial markets. The same day of the announcement the FTSE experienced a fall of five points and has since continued to decline.
This confirms the comments made in the House of Commons by Colin Burgon, Labour MP for Elmet, "What we see is the market's invisible hand reaching into the pocket of the taxpayer and taking £ 50,000 million and maybe putting two fingers. " The measures are a partial nationalization. But the boards of banks nationalized " no one to represent the interests of taxpayers and, therefore, no real control over the bankers.
In the House of Commons, the Conservatives and the Liberals supported the government's plan. It's natural! In a crisis all the men and women come together for the good of the cause, ie the cause of the Capital. Leaders from all parties showed their loyalty to the City of London. But Conservative leader David Cameron could not resist to point to beat rival New Labour.
With the kind of gentle cynicism that can only give years of practice, demanding that they be paid to the bankers this year no bonus. This petition, which sought to reach a wide audience, caught off guard the poor Gordon (not hard to get it).
In a sample of parliamentary ineptitude amazing even by his own level, the prime minister mumbled something about the need to "reward competition" or words on the subject. At a time when everyone knows that these "competent" bankers have destroyed entire global financial system, these comments will not Labour leader to win many new fans inside or outside the mother of all parliaments.
is true that the next day our Gordon (no doubt advised by his advisers) decided to make public statements on the bankers 'irresponsible' should be "punished", although it was unclear exactly what would this "punishment." Maybe force them to listen to speeches by Alistair Darling on the "honesty" financially throughout the weekend. Probably prefer to give up their annual bonuses.
Iceland, a bankrupt nation
Although steep declines in global markets was the most visible sign of the deepening crisis, a more significant was the increase in interest rates on loans interbank short term, despite interest rate cut on Wednesday agreed to major world central banks. This shows that banks fear most is that lending to each other. The credit crunch not only portends a disaster in the financial system but also in industry production, consumption and even entire nations. Today
The Washington Post noted the damage already inflicted on the U.S. manufacturing industry: "One of the hardest hit have been among the U.S. automakers. JD Power and Associates said the global auto industry may experience an 'outright collapse' in 2009. After S & P Ratings Agency put on alert to GM for its debt. GM shares fell 31 percent, to $ 4.76, its lowest level since 1950, and Ford fell 22 percent. "That means big business in the near future will go bankrupt, with the rising unemployment, which will be a significant market contraction causing further bankruptcies.
The article continues: "Meanwhile, the clouds have moved into new sectors of the economy. Trouble in sectors like steel and machinery production heavy, which until recently were growing vigorously, which has helped to underpin the idea that the U.S. economy has fallen into a significant recession. Economists predict the economy will contract until mid-2009.
Even the steep fall in oil prices was bad news for the market and energy stocks fell. Exxon Mobil and Chevron each fell by 12 percent. During the third quarter, U.S. consumers have greatly reduced their spending, which is the first quarter of decline in the 17 years that the government has been publishing these figures. This is the most decisive question. The market U.S. used to absorb an enormous amount of produced in other countries. A sharp reduction in U.S. demand means that these products not be sold.
All the chatter of the bourgeois economists about the "decoupling" of the U.S. economy the rest of the world has proven to be stupid. Like a heavy rock thrown into a lake, the crisis is causing waves. The financial tsunami that began eighteen months ago in the U.S. now has beaten Iceland, where the internet bank Icesave has announced it will freeze all accounts of their customers, that means that anyone with money in the bank will have to apply for compensation to recover its money. A parent bank of Icesave, Landsbanki, was nationalized by the Icelandic regulators.
Attempts to obtain money from Reykjavik authorities have failed for the simple reason that Iceland is bankrupt. Iceland followed the example of Britain and America during the last period and the economy, therefore, heavily dependent on service industries and financial products. As a result, I was very exposed to the subprime market, this has led the country to ruin.
The insolvency affects some 350,000 British and Dutch savers, with approximately 4,500 million pounds in deposits. The local authorities and other UK public institutions have lost more than one billion. Since the British government did not get guarantees from Reykjavik that Iceland would pay that money (it is always difficult to get blood from a stone), has taken the unprecedented step of freezing Icelandic assets in Britain, using the antiterrorism law to justify its action. This has caused a diplomatic incident between Reykjavik and London.
There are clear signs of desperation, which is not surprising. When the British government gave £ 500,000 million to banks, actually it was a desperate gamble. Now he has used all their reserves and plunged the nation even more. The British economy is even more exposed now to the effects of international crisis it was before. Nick Louth writes in MSN Money (8/10/08): "But for us the greatest risk now is the economy in general. Throwing down the debt of the banks inflated the national lifeboat, the economy is sinking deeper into the water and is much more vulnerable to recessionary waves. "
As part of the euro zone protects countries like Ireland, afflicted by the same bank weakness and falling house prices, sterling is very vulnerable. When ordering provided an extra £ 50,000 million, many of them abroad, the British government has further undermined confidence in the value of the currency. The pound has fallen against both the dollar and the euro. The pound will fall even more, reflecting the weakness of the UK economy already in recession. Many small businesses are facing bankruptcy due to credit freeze. Continue the great. Now unemployment begins to rise.
capitalist anarchy
Bourgeois economists expressed his utter bewilderment. Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in 1987 for his work on economic growth, told the The Washington Post the "potential for instability was always there" but was surprised by the magnitude of the problems. "I'm as confused as the rest (...) I have no particular wisdom to sell." These words express adequately the current psychology of the bourgeoisie and its ideologues, who are, to use Trotsky's expression, "sliding towards disaster with their eyes closed."
In a desperate attempt to avoid the looming catastrophe, global economic policymakers are gathering in Washington today for October 10 the annual meetings of IMF and World Bank to try to find coordinated responses. But all the measures taken will be in vain. The markets continued their relentless downward movement. Even when the British minister, Alistair Darling and other ministers of economy of the G7 group arrived in Washington to discuss plans to restore "confidence", as we have seen, the Dow Jones index of leading shares already fell below the 9,000 points for the first time since 2003.
The British government's declared aim in this summit is pushing other countries towards a "comprehensive approach" to resolve the financial crisis and a renewed effort for strengthening international economic coordination. But first, when an army is heading in the field of battle and screams: "sauve quipeut" (Every man for himself!) Is useless to try to restore a sense of collective discipline and team spirit. Second, today the British government is in no position to push anyone to do something. In fact, it already has enough problems forcing the little Iceland to repay several billion pounds of lost deposits.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry "Hank" Paulson seeks to expand the meeting to the G20, including well developed economies G7 countries such as Russia, China, India and others who have grown rapidly, following the old principle of "misery is not alone." Together they would have the vast majority of world GDP and Paulson expects all willing to share joint pain, mainly to help U.S. out of its misery.
The G7 meeting comes at the end of a tumultuous week in which markets have fallen around the globe. What we see here is fear. The panic that has swept markets threatens to overwhelm all government attempts to contain the crisis. None of the desperate measures taken by the Fed, European and British governments and central banks have stopped the stampede. There is an old law, the instinct of command, which governs the behavior of the markets. The faintest scent of a lion lurking in the bush will send a signal to a herd of wildebeest panic there is nothing that can stop him. This is the kind of mechanism that determines the fate of millions of people. This is the stark reality of the market economy.
President Bush today is scheduled Oct. 10 to make a statement on the crisis in the Rose Garden. It will also quite unusual step of meeting with finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized countries Saturday. The press chief, Dana Perino, said Bush "ensure the American people that they should be confident that economic authorities would undertake all the necessary strong measures to stabilize our financial system." The assumption, as always with the bourgeoisie, the crisis is caused by a lack of confidence. But the "trust" reflects the objective economic conditions. No speech comfortable chairs, central bankers or the Pope of Rome will make the slightest difference.
The class struggle in the agenda
As a wildebeest is able to smell a lion, markets can smell the impending of a recession. Once this happens no one can stop him. All the speeches, all interest rate cuts and bank rescues all, will have no effect on financial markets. See that governments and central banks are afraid, therefore draw the necessary conclusions. Tuesday, October 9, there was suggestions that the U.S. Treasury was willing to partially nationalize some major U.S. banks. This extraordinary gesture which goes against all precepts of "free market economy", aimed to calm the nerves. Naturally he failed.
The problem is that what began as a banking crisis now affects the real economy. The IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said yesterday that "we are on the cusp of global recession" and called for a program of emergency funds to countries facing difficulties. However, he declined to name any future recipients of IMF aid, it is obvious that the main contenders are the rich nations, Iceland, has said he does not seek these funds. In any case, the IMF can not possibly insure everyone. And the crisis, now staring us in the face, is global. No country can escape.
The crisis will undoubtedly affect hardest poor countries in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Latin America. In addition to the collapse of exports, which hit all commodities (except gold and silver), including oil, are facing rising food prices, which largely is the result of speculation. A recent report by the Bank warned that rising food prices push 26 million Latin Americans into absolute poverty.
Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, warned that the poorest in the world face a "triple threat" of food, fuel and finance: "You can not ask the poorest pay the highest price . We estimate that another 44 million people this year will suffer from malnutrition due to rising food prices. We can not allow the financial crisis from becoming a humanitarian crisis. "Kind words are delicate, but as the old saying goes, Actions speak louder than words.
Even in the boom the overwhelming majority have achieved little or no benefit. There has been an extreme polarization between rich and poor in all countries. Two percent of the world's population now has more than half of global wealth. 1,200 million men, women and children living in of absolute poverty. Eight million each year die from poverty. This is the best that capitalism could offer. What happens now?
Everywhere the mood of the masses is changing. In Latin America there is revolutionary ferment that will intensify and spread to other continents. In Britain, the U.S. and other industrialized nations, many people who previously did not question the existing social order now beginning to ask questions. Ideas that were previously heard by a small number find an echo among a wider audience. Is preparing the ground for an unprecedented explosion of class struggle worldwide.
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